Ammo shortage to worsen?

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot 358]

I tend to agree to buy if you can.

 

1.  The price of core commodities (e.g. brass, copper, oil) is not going down.  You can thank world demand (China) for that.

2.  Ammo doesn't go bad unless you're doing something crazy with storage

3.  There's a ready market if you decide to sell ammo.

4.  There has been a dark history of importation and surplus bans by executive order.  Most notably, Clinton.

 

 

Take away the panic pricing and the long-term trend is for ammo prices to rise.  So, it sort makes sense to dollar cost average and buy an amount each week/month.

[Old Glock guy 1,127]

Just took a quick peek at a couple of websites, and it looks like 7.62 is disappearing.

[ogfarmer 138]

Just took a quick peek at a couple of websites, and it looks like 7.62 is disappearing.

 

no its not, actually a whole lot of really cheaper priced has hit the market

 

http://www.wikiarms.com/group/7.62x39

[Shawnmoore81 623]

http://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/2014/03/foghorn/breaking-obama-confirms-executive-order-covers-entire-russian-arms-manufacturing-sector/

 

Well this won't help matters

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

[obracer12 1]

There isn't so much of a shortage  more so  panic buys and price gauging from private re-sellers. locally I can still get bricks of 22LR for $25 if you go at the right time. 9mm is starting to dry up a little bit or get more expensive, a local gun shop wanted $22.50 for a box(50) of PMC Bronze... he must have been high that day with the price gun. 

Standard CCI, Tulammo, American Eagle, White box and anything Hornady can still be found, but the prices are creeping up... sad really... probably the same people who rush out for milk and bread right before a snow storm.

[RubberBullets 65]

Jesus christ you fear perpetrators.... we are our own worst enemy.

 

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

 

 

[raz-0 1,259]

I tend to agree to buy if you can.

 

1.  The price of core commodities (e.g. brass, copper, oil) is not going down.  You can thank world demand (China) for that.

2.  Ammo doesn't go bad unless you're doing something crazy with storage

3.  There's a ready market if you decide to sell ammo.

4.  There has been a dark history of importation and surplus bans by executive order.  Most notably, Clinton.

 

 

Take away the panic pricing and the long-term trend is for ammo prices to rise.  So, it sort makes sense to dollar cost average and buy an amount each week/month.

 

 

Jesus christ you fear perpetrators.... we are our own worst enemy.

 

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

 

Well lets look. 60 day copper looks like a mesa and the price fell off a cliff. Why? Because china is having problems with how it was gaming loans and financing that operated on having a pile of some viable commodity in storage and "buying" and "selling" it to essentially loan out cash in a leveraged manner. Because of recent failures, this is a MUCH more risky money press right now, so no big purchases to get richer and richer. Lead 60 day. Big drop and a bounce back halfway up likely due to too hard a buy trying to get in on fallout from the lead smelter closing. Global supply is a non issue. Nickel... rising back to prices from a year ago, but that's still less than half the peak price of 2011. 60 day chart, took a giant poop about 30 days ago just like most of the other base metals still elevated over prices form a year ago. Still way cheaper than in 2011. 

 

I think the primary factors are that inflation is inflation. Prices will only go up. You can readily resell, and it keeps. That and we are shifting form gun owners being hunters who buy a few boxes a year to self-defense oriented who went from buying a box or two a month to a lot more and won't back down to the one or two boxes a month level even if they don't stay near peak. 

[gunguy1960 2]

The shortage is permanent. The ammo makers are running full steam, so they say, and the stores say they are getting only a trickle of ammo. Its not even getting to the stores .

[raz-0 1,259]

The shortage is permanent. The ammo makers are running full steam, so they say, and the stores say they are getting only a trickle of ammo. Its not even getting to the stores .

 

It's not permanent. You have one of two extremes to choose from. Either buying will ease to "normal" levels and supply will keep up, or demand will persist long term, and manufacturers will feel comfortable expanding production capabilities. Reality is that demand will settle someplace, either where it is at or less. Especially given that we are leaving behind market pressures from china over their commodity lending schemes, cost should drop on raw materials. This means that production costs should drop. Unless demand is dropping along with it, this adds pressure to expand production capabilities or to add smaller manufacturers to the market as margins can be maintained even if you increase supply, and for new companies, margins are fatter so it is more attractive. 

 

The real issue is going to be .22lr. For centerfire stuff, there are offline facilities that bringing them online would be significantly cheaper than building new. For rimfire, it's looking at building new for a low margin item.